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Volume 25 – Commodities (Metals)

This volume surveys the six metals currently traded on the London Metal Exchange. We have used spot prices to avoid all the problems inherent in attempting to link futures prices.

Aluminum, mixed, 1960
Copper, weekly, 1875
Lead, mixed, 1875
Nickel, mixed,1929
Tin, mixed, 1880
Zinc, mixed, 1875

Nominal Spot Price and Inflation-Adjusted

There are two charts for each commodity (mixed frequencies). The first chart compares the nominal spot price with the inflation-adjusted price on a landscape, comparable log scaled chart. After adjusting for inflation, these charts take on an entirely different look. 

The upper line is the nominal spot price and the lower line is the inflation-adjusted price. This nominal price has broken a very long trend line, while the inflation-adjusted price recently made an all-time low. The relatively flat inflation-adjusted price is a strong argument for the accuracy of the CPI, despite the Boskin Report. This is a 4kb thumbnail! It would take over sixty full SVGA screens to show the detail on one Topline chart. The real charts look much better than these thumbnails.

Coppock Curve

The second chart shows the history of the commodity since 1960 along with its Coppock Curve (based on monthly averages).

After the 1986 collapse in prices, tin's downside momentum has weakened on each decline. One could also argue that the pattern from 1974 to 1993 is a massive head and shoulders top. This is a 4kb thumbnail! It would take over sixty full SVGA screens to show the detail on one Topline chart. The real charts look much better than these thumbnails.

This volume was introduced in the December 1996 edition.

Other examples of Coppock Curves can be seen at:

Volume 16 – Coppock Curves

Volume 23 – World CPIs

Volume 24 – Commodities (Grains & Softs)

 

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Last modified: April 06, 2005