New Era Updated

These are the updated charts of various growth rates of the Standard & Poor's 500 Average (using monthly averages) that were used in the original New Era for Stocks article. As you can see, the current bull market has shown unprecedented strength.

Another Way To Look At It

This chart shows the value of $1 invested in the S&P 500 after 15 years. We've picked the best month from each of the five greatest bull markets since 1886.

The other charts show rates of return that are annualized. When you see the August 1997 peak almost two percent above prior peaks, it doesn't look like a big difference. What's two percent? A lot, if you compound it over 15 years. As you can see from this chart, the current bull market is clearly an outlier.

The five bull markets shown are the five highest peaks on the next chart.

You can scroll down to the chart image below, or click the title above to jump right to it. The Adobe Acrobat (PDF) is also available for download. Just right click the chart, or jump down to the Downloads section.

These charts are updated through the end of October 1997. The commentary from the original New Era article still applies. Most of them are even more dramatic now.

Fifteen Year Growth Rate

This chart shows the 15 year growth rate of the S&P 500, using monthly average data. We have spliced the Cowles Commission average on so that we can show over a century of data (raw data starts in 1871, the first 15 year change is 1886). The growth is based on price appreciation only, dividends and inflation are not accounted for.

Ten Year Growth Rate

81 Month Growth Rate

31 Month Growth Rate

12 Month Growth Rate

Summary Table

	Annualized Growth Rate
	Nominal		Inflation Adjusted
Period	October 97	Average (Entire period)	October 97	Average (Entire period)
12 months	35.60%	4.24%	33.16%	2.14%
31 months	28.95%	4.28%	25.86%	2.14%
81 months	17.22%	4.79%	14.13%	2.44%
10 years	13.00%	4.36%	9.28%	1.91%
15 years	14.03%	4.72%	10.33%	2.09%

July 1997 witnessed extremes in growth in all of these measures (see July table). Growth rates of four of the five measures have been declining. The 10 year growth rate is still expanding, due to the October 1987 crash.

Acknowledgements

"Original thought is like original sin: both happened before you were born to people you could not have possibly met."
Fran Lebowitz

Jim Bianco, CMT of Arbor Trading wrote a piece for his clients pointing out how dramatic the growth in the stock market was. Also, we have spent many hours examining the demographics of markets.
Jim's piece was followed by Ed Hyman's (ISI) chart of the 31 month rate of change of the S&P (back to the mid-1950s), which caught my graphically oriented eye and interest.
Ian McAvity, CMT, wrote a marvelous piece in issue 598 of Deliberations on World Markets in which he examined the premise of assuming that current growth rates can continue.

This piece would not have been possible without the assistance of Jim Bianco and Ian McAvity, for which I am very grateful.

Like any succesful team, Topline Investment Graphics has great players. I would not have been able to write this piece without the invaluable assistance and encouragement of Ron Griess, Donna Baden and my loving wife, Susan.

John Carder, CMT

Downloads
These are Adobe Acrobat PDF files, which you can view, manipulate and even print. If you aren't familiar with Acrobat, check the links below. The charts and text of the original article are also available.

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